剧情简介
Predictionsunderlienearlyeveryaspectofourlives,fromsports,politics,andmedicaldecisionstothemorningcommute.Withtheexplosionofdigitaltechnology,theinternet,and“bigdata,”thescienceofforecastingisflourishing.Butwhydosomepredictionssucceedspectacularlywhileothersfailabysmally?Andhowcanwefindmeaningfulpatternsamidstchaosanduncertainty?FromtheglitzofcasinosandTVgameshowstothelife-and-deathstakesofstormforecastsandtheflawsofopinionpollsthatcanswinganelection,“PredictionbytheNumbers”exploresstoriesofstatisticsinaction.Yetadvancesinmachinelearningandbigdatamodelsthatincreasinglyruleourlivesarealsoposingbig,disturbingquestions.Howmuchshouldwetrustpredictionsmadebyalgorithmswhenwedon’tunderstandhowtheyarriveatthem?Andhowfaraheadcanwereallyforecast?
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